Steve Manos
Republican
U.S. House · All California races
California District 39
Solid D
Mark Takano
Democratic · incumbent
>99 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Steve Manos
Republican
<1 in 100
Mark Takano wins in >99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Mark Takano +27.3.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Takano +27.2; 80 in 100 fall between Takano +19.9 and Takano +34.5.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Mark TakanoIncumbent
Democratic
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.
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Polls
No public polls have tested Mark Takano against Steve Manos yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Takano 100, Manos 0.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | D+7.0 | roughly 14 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Takano +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Takano +27.3 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Takano +27.3 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Mark Takano >99 in 100 (Solid D)
- Polls + fundamentals: Mark Takano >99 in 100 (Solid D)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Mark Takano >99 in 100 (Solid D)
Rules and notes
- Top-two primary state: the two general-election candidates can be from the same party.
- Incumbent advanced to general
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