Cristian Morales
Republican
U.S. House · All California races
California District 43
Solid D
Maxine Waters
Democratic · incumbent
100 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Cristian Morales
Republican
0 in 100
Maxine Waters wins in 100 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Maxine Waters +67.3.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Waters +67.3; 80 in 100 fall between Waters +59.9 and Waters +74.5.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Maxine WatersIncumbent
Democratic
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.
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Polls
No public polls have tested Maxine Waters against Cristian Morales yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Waters 100, Morales 0.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | D+27.0 | roughly 54 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Waters +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Waters +67.3 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Waters +67.3 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Maxine Waters 100 in 100 (Solid D)
- Polls + fundamentals: Maxine Waters 100 in 100 (Solid D)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Maxine Waters 100 in 100 (Solid D)
Rules and notes
- Top-two primary state: the two general-election candidates can be from the same party.
- Incumbent advanced to general
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