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U.S. House · All California races

California District 44

Solid D
Compare
Nanette Barragán
Democratic · incumbent
100 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Genevieve Angel
Republican
0 in 100

Nanette Barragán wins in 100 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Nanette Barragán +53.3.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Barragán +53.2; 80 in 100 fall between Barragán +46.0 and Barragán +60.5.

Angel +30Angel +20Angel +10Barragán +10Barragán +20Barragán +30Tie

The candidates

Genevieve Angel
Republican
No biography on file yet.
Nanette BarragánIncumbent
Democratic
No biography on file yet.

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Nanette Barragán against Genevieve Angel yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Barragán 100, Angel 0.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) D+20.0roughly 40 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
IncumbencyBarragán +3.6incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimateBarragán +53.3±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastBarragán +53.3±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Nanette Barragán 100 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Nanette Barragán 100 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Nanette Barragán 100 in 100 (Solid D)

Rules and notes

  • Top-two primary state: the two general-election candidates can be from the same party.
  • Incumbent advanced to general

House races, closest first · this is #270 of 421