Lou CorreaIncumbent
Democratic
U.S. House · All California races
California District 46
Solid D
Lou Correa
Democratic · incumbent
100 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
David Pan
Republican
0 in 100
Lou Correa wins in 100 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Lou Correa +33.3.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Correa +33.2; 80 in 100 fall between Correa +25.9 and Correa +40.5.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
David Pan
Republican
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.
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Polls
No public polls have tested Lou Correa against David Pan yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Correa 100, Pan 0.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | D+10.0 | roughly 20 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Correa +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Correa +33.3 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Correa +33.3 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Lou Correa 100 in 100 (Solid D)
- Polls + fundamentals: Lou Correa 100 in 100 (Solid D)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Lou Correa 100 in 100 (Solid D)
Rules and notes
- Top-two primary state: the two general-election candidates can be from the same party.
- Incumbent advanced to general
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