Skip to content
Bellwether
LatestAll updates →
U.S. House · All Indiana races

Indiana District 7

Solid D
Compare
André Carson
Democratic · incumbent
100 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Patrick McAuley
Republican
0 in 100

André Carson wins in 100 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to André Carson +53.4.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Carson +53.4; 80 in 100 fall between Carson +46.1 and Carson +60.6.

McAuley +30McAuley +20McAuley +10Carson +10Carson +20Carson +30Tie

The candidates

André CarsonIncumbent
Democratic
No biography on file yet.
Patrick McAuley
Republican
No biography on file yet.
James Sceniak
Libertarian

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested André Carson against Patrick McAuley yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Carson 100, McAuley 0.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) D+21.0roughly 42 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbent’s track record McAuley +1.9In 2024 they ran 3.8 pts more Republican than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10)
IncumbencyCarson +3.6incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimateCarson +53.4±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastCarson +53.4±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: André Carson 100 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals: André Carson 100 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: André Carson 100 in 100 (Solid D)

Rules and notes

  • Incumbent renominated

House races, closest first · this is #307 of 421