Mary Allen
Democratic
U.S. House · All Indiana races
Indiana District 8
Solid R
Mary Allen
Democratic
0 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Mark Messmer
Republican · incumbent
100 in 100
Mark Messmer wins in 100 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Mark Messmer +30.0.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Messmer +30.1; 80 in 100 fall between Messmer +37.3 and Messmer +22.8.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Mark MessmerIncumbent
Republican
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.
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Polls
No public polls have tested Mary Allen against Mark Messmer yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Allen 0, Messmer 100.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+18.0 | roughly 36 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Messmer +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Messmer +30.0 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Messmer +30.0 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Mary Allen 0 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals: Mary Allen 0 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Mary Allen 0 in 100 (Solid R)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent renominated
House races, closest first · this is #308 of 421