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U.S. House · open seat · All Kentucky races

Kentucky District 4

Solid R
Compare
Melissa Strange
Democratic
<1 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Ed Gallrein
Republican
>99 in 100

Ed Gallrein wins in >99 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Ed Gallrein +26.4.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Gallrein +26.3; 80 in 100 fall between Gallrein +33.6 and Gallrein +19.0.

Gallrein +30Gallrein +20Gallrein +10Strange +10Strange +20Strange +30Tie

The candidates

Ed Gallrein
Republican
No biography on file yet.
Melissa Strange
Democratic
No biography on file yet.
Jeremy Todd
Libertarian

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Melissa Strange against Ed Gallrein yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Strange 0, Gallrein 100.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) R+18.0roughly 36 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbencynoneopen seat or incumbent not on ballot
Fundamentals estimateGallrein +26.4±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastGallrein +26.4±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Melissa Strange <1 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Melissa Strange <1 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Melissa Strange <1 in 100 (Solid R)

Rules and notes

  • Incumbent lost renomination

House races, closest first · this is #227 of 421