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U.S. House · open seat · All Louisiana races

Louisiana District 5

Solid R
Compare
Democratic field
D
<1 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Republican field
R
>99 in 100

Republican field wins in >99 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Republican field +24.4.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin field +24.3; 80 in 100 fall between field +31.6 and field +17.1.

field +30field +20field +10field +10field +20field +30Tie

The candidates

Stewart Cathey Jr.
Republican
Misti Cordell
Republican
Omar Dantzler
Republican
Michael Echols
Republican
Gabe Firment
Republican
Austin Magee
Republican
Dan McKay
Democratic
Patricia Moore
Democratic
Antonio Wilson
Democratic

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

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Polls

No public polls have tested Democratic field against Republican field yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: field 0, field 100.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) R+17.0roughly 34 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbencynoneopen seat or incumbent not on ballot
Fundamentals estimatefield +24.4±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
Forecastfield +24.4±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Democratic field <1 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Democratic field <1 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Democratic field <1 in 100 (Solid R)

Rules and notes

  • Louisiana’s House races hold an all-party primary on Nov. 3 with a Dec. 12 runoff if no one tops 50%; the forecast is for which party ultimately holds the seat.
  • Incumbent retiring to run for U.S. Senate
  • Louisiana House: all-party primary on Nov. 3; runoff Dec. 12 if no one tops 50%.

House races, closest first · this is #228 of 421