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U.S. House · All Maryland races

Maryland District 6

Solid D
Compare
April McClain Delaney
Democratic · incumbent
>99 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Robin Ficker
Republican
<1 in 100

April McClain Delaney wins in >99 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to April McClain Delaney +21.8.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Delaney +21.7; 80 in 100 fall between Delaney +14.5 and Delaney +29.0.

Ficker +30Ficker +20Ficker +10Delaney +10Delaney +20Delaney +30Tie

The candidates

Robin Ficker
Republican
Raised
$1.0M
Cash on hand
$1K
Through 2026-09-30
No biography on file yet.
April McClain DelaneyIncumbent
Democratic
Raised
$12.5M
Cash on hand
$73K
Through 2026-09-30
No biography on file yet.
Moshe Landman
Green

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested April McClain Delaney against Robin Ficker yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Delaney 100, Ficker 0.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) D+3.0roughly 6 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
IncumbencyDelaney +3.6incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimateDelaney +21.8±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastDelaney +21.8±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: April McClain Delaney >99 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals: April McClain Delaney >99 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: April McClain Delaney >99 in 100 (Solid D)

Rules and notes

  • Incumbent renominated

House races, closest first · this is #229 of 421