Skip to content
Bellwether
LatestAll updates →
U.S. House · All Michigan races

Michigan District 9

Solid R
Compare
Ray Pooley
Democratic
0 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Lisa McClain
Republican · incumbent
100 in 100

Lisa McClain wins in 100 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Lisa McClain +27.0.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin McClain +27.0; 80 in 100 fall between McClain +34.3 and McClain +19.7.

McClain +30McClain +20McClain +10Pooley +10Pooley +20Pooley +30Tie

The candidates

Lisa McClainIncumbent
Republican
No biography on file yet.
Ray Pooley
Democratic
No biography on file yet.
Destiny Clayton
Green
Kevin Vayko
Libertarian
John Vlahos
U.S. Taxpayers
Jim Walkowicz
Working Class

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Ray Pooley against Lisa McClain yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Pooley 0, McClain 100.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) R+16.0roughly 32 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbent’s track record McClain +0.9In 2024 they ran 1.9 pts more Republican than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10)
IncumbencyMcClain +3.6incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimateMcClain +26.9±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastMcClain +26.9±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Ray Pooley 0 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Ray Pooley 0 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Ray Pooley 0 in 100 (Solid R)

Rules and notes

  • Incumbent renominated

House races, closest first · this is #330 of 421