Skip to content
Bellwether
LatestAll updates →
U.S. House · All Michigan races

Michigan District 12

Solid D
Compare
Rashida Tlaib
Democratic · incumbent
100 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
James Hooper
Republican
0 in 100

Rashida Tlaib wins in 100 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Rashida Tlaib +55.9.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Tlaib +55.9; 80 in 100 fall between Tlaib +48.6 and Tlaib +63.2.

Hooper +30Hooper +20Hooper +10Tlaib +10Tlaib +20Tlaib +30Tie

The candidates

James Hooper
Republican
No biography on file yet.
Rashida TlaibIncumbent
Democratic
No biography on file yet.
Brenda K. Sanders
Green
Marc J. Sosnowski
U.S. Taxpayers
Gary Walkowicz
Working Class

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Rashida Tlaib against James Hooper yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Tlaib 100, Hooper 0.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) D+21.0roughly 42 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbent’s track record Tlaib +0.6In 2024 they ran 1.2 pts more Democratic than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10)
IncumbencyTlaib +3.6incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimateTlaib +55.9±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastTlaib +55.9±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Rashida Tlaib 100 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Rashida Tlaib 100 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Rashida Tlaib 100 in 100 (Solid D)

Rules and notes

  • Incumbent renominated

House races, closest first · this is #331 of 421