Donavan McKinney
Democratic
U.S. House · open seat · All Michigan races
Michigan District 13
Solid D
Donavan McKinney
Democratic
100 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
T. P. Nykoriak
Republican
0 in 100
Donavan McKinney wins in 100 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Donavan McKinney +53.6.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin McKinney +53.6; 80 in 100 fall between McKinney +46.4 and McKinney +60.9.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
T. P. Nykoriak
Republican
Simone R. Coleman
Working Class
Chris Dardzinski
U.S. Taxpayers
Raelyn Light
Green
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.
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Polls
No public polls have tested Donavan McKinney against T. P. Nykoriak yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: McKinney 100, Nykoriak 0.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | D+22.0 | roughly 44 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | none | open seat or incumbent not on ballot |
| Fundamentals estimate | McKinney +53.6 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | McKinney +53.6 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Donavan McKinney 100 in 100 (Solid D)
- Polls + fundamentals: Donavan McKinney 100 in 100 (Solid D)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Donavan McKinney 100 in 100 (Solid D)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent lost renomination
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