Wesley BellIncumbent
Democratic
U.S. House · All Missouri races
Missouri District 1
Solid D
Wesley Bell
Democratic · incumbent
100 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Paul Berry
Republican
0 in 100
Wesley Bell wins in 100 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Wesley Bell +71.3.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Bell +71.3; 80 in 100 fall between Bell +64.1 and Bell +78.6.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Paul Berry
Republican
Tom Schmitz
Libertarian
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.
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Polls
No public polls have tested Wesley Bell against Paul Berry yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Bell 100, Berry 0.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | D+29.0 | roughly 58 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Bell +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Bell +71.3 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Bell +71.3 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Wesley Bell 100 in 100 (Solid D)
- Polls + fundamentals: Wesley Bell 100 in 100 (Solid D)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Wesley Bell 100 in 100 (Solid D)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent renominated
House races, closest first · this is #340 of 421