Mark AlfordIncumbent
Republican
U.S. House · All Missouri races
Missouri District 4
Solid R
Jordan Herrera
Democratic
0 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Mark Alford
Republican · incumbent
100 in 100
Mark Alford wins in 100 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Mark Alford +36.0.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Alford +36.0; 80 in 100 fall between Alford +43.3 and Alford +28.7.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Jordan Herrera
Democratic
Thomas Holbrook
Libertarian
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.
What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →
Polls
No public polls have tested Jordan Herrera against Mark Alford yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Herrera 0, Alford 100.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+21.0 | roughly 42 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Alford +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Alford +36.0 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Alford +36.0 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Jordan Herrera 0 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals: Jordan Herrera 0 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Jordan Herrera 0 in 100 (Solid R)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent renominated
House races, closest first · this is #341 of 421