Skip to content
Bellwether
LatestAll updates →
U.S. House · All Missouri races

Missouri District 5

Solid D
Compare
Emanuel Cleaver
Democratic · incumbent
100 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Rick Brattin
Republican
0 in 100

Emanuel Cleaver wins in 100 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Emanuel Cleaver +37.3.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Cleaver +37.3; 80 in 100 fall between Cleaver +30.1 and Cleaver +44.5.

Brattin +30Brattin +20Brattin +10Cleaver +10Cleaver +20Cleaver +30Tie

The candidates

Rick Brattin
Republican
No biography on file yet.
Emanuel CleaverIncumbent
Democratic
No biography on file yet.
Randy Langkraehr
Libertarian

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Emanuel Cleaver against Rick Brattin yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Cleaver 100, Brattin 0.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) D+12.0roughly 24 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
IncumbencyCleaver +3.6incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimateCleaver +37.3±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastCleaver +37.3±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Emanuel Cleaver 100 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Emanuel Cleaver 100 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Emanuel Cleaver 100 in 100 (Solid D)

Rules and notes

  • Incumbent renominated

House races, closest first · this is #342 of 421