Josh Smead
Democratic
U.S. House · open seat · All Missouri races
Missouri District 6
Solid R
Josh Smead
Democratic
0 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Chris Stigall
Republican
100 in 100
Chris Stigall wins in 100 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Chris Stigall +28.4.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Stigall +28.4; 80 in 100 fall between Stigall +35.6 and Stigall +21.2.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Chris Stigall
Republican
Andy Maidment
Libertarian
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.
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Polls
No public polls have tested Josh Smead against Chris Stigall yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Smead 0, Stigall 100.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+19.0 | roughly 38 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | none | open seat or incumbent not on ballot |
| Fundamentals estimate | Stigall +28.4 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Stigall +28.4 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Josh Smead 0 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals: Josh Smead 0 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Josh Smead 0 in 100 (Solid R)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent retiring
House races, closest first · this is #343 of 421