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U.S. House · All Missouri races

Missouri District 7

Solid R
Compare
Missi Hesketh
Democratic
0 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Eric Burlison
Republican · incumbent
100 in 100

Eric Burlison wins in 100 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Eric Burlison +36.0.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Burlison +36.0; 80 in 100 fall between Burlison +43.2 and Burlison +28.7.

Burlison +30Burlison +20Burlison +10Hesketh +10Hesketh +20Hesketh +30Tie

The candidates

Eric BurlisonIncumbent
Republican
No biography on file yet.
Missi Hesketh
Democratic
No biography on file yet.
Kevin Craig
Libertarian

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Missi Hesketh against Eric Burlison yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Hesketh 0, Burlison 100.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) R+21.0roughly 42 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
IncumbencyBurlison +3.6incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimateBurlison +36.0±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastBurlison +36.0±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Missi Hesketh 0 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Missi Hesketh 0 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Missi Hesketh 0 in 100 (Solid R)

Rules and notes

  • Incumbent renominated

House races, closest first · this is #344 of 421