Bob LattaIncumbent
Republican
Raised$1.7M
Cash on hand$973K
Through 2026-09-30
U.S. House · All Ohio races
Ohio District 5
Solid R
Brian Shaver
Democratic
<1 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Bob Latta
Republican · incumbent
>99 in 100
Bob Latta wins in >99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Bob Latta +20.5.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Latta +20.5; 80 in 100 fall between Latta +27.9 and Latta +13.3.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Brian Shaver
Democratic
Raised$53K
Cash on hand$38K
Through 2026-09-30
Michael Veloff
Libertarian
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →
Polls
No public polls have tested Brian Shaver against Bob Latta yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Shaver 0, Latta 100.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+12.0 | roughly 24 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Latta +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Latta +20.5 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Latta +20.5 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Brian Shaver <1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals: Brian Shaver <1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Brian Shaver <1 in 100 (Solid R)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent renominated
House races, closest first · this is #194 of 421