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U.S. House · All Oregon races

Oregon District 2

Solid R
Compare
Chris Beck
Democratic
<1 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Cliff Bentz
Republican · incumbent
>99 in 100

Cliff Bentz wins in >99 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Cliff Bentz +21.8.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Bentz +21.9; 80 in 100 fall between Bentz +29.1 and Bentz +14.6.

Bentz +30Bentz +20Bentz +10Beck +10Beck +20Beck +30Tie

The candidates

Chris Beck
Democratic
No biography on file yet.
Cliff BentzIncumbent
Republican
No biography on file yet.

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Chris Beck against Cliff Bentz yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Beck 0, Bentz 100.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) R+14.0roughly 28 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbent’s track record Beck +0.2In 2024 they ran 0.4 pts more Democratic than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10)
IncumbencyBentz +3.6incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimateBentz +21.8±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastBentz +21.8±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Chris Beck <1 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Chris Beck <1 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Chris Beck <1 in 100 (Solid R)

Rules and notes

  • Incumbent renominated

House races, closest first · this is #195 of 421