Skip to content
Bellwether
LatestAll updates →
U.S. House · All Oregon races

Oregon District 4

Solid D
Compare
Val Hoyle
Democratic · incumbent
>99 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Monique DeSpain
Republican
<1 in 100

Val Hoyle wins in >99 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Val Hoyle +22.1.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Hoyle +22.1; 80 in 100 fall between Hoyle +14.8 and Hoyle +29.3.

DeSpain +30DeSpain +20DeSpain +10Hoyle +10Hoyle +20Hoyle +30Tie

The candidates

Monique DeSpain
Republican
No biography on file yet.
Val HoyleIncumbent
Democratic
No biography on file yet.
Justin Filip
Pacific Green

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Val Hoyle against Monique DeSpain yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Hoyle 100, DeSpain 0.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) D+6.0roughly 12 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbent’s track record DeSpain +3.2In 2024 they ran 6.4 pts more Republican than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10)
IncumbencyHoyle +3.6incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimateHoyle +22.1±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastHoyle +22.1±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Val Hoyle >99 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Val Hoyle >99 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Val Hoyle >99 in 100 (Solid D)

Rules and notes

  • Incumbent renominated

House races, closest first · this is #196 of 421