Shontel BrownIncumbent
Democratic
U.S. House · All Ohio races
Ohio District 11
Solid D
Shontel Brown
Democratic · incumbent
100 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Mike Kirchner
Republican
0 in 100
Shontel Brown wins in 100 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Shontel Brown +69.3.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Brown +69.2; 80 in 100 fall between Brown +62.0 and Brown +76.6.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Mike Kirchner
Republican
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.
What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →
Polls
No public polls have tested Shontel Brown against Mike Kirchner yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Brown 100, Kirchner 0.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | D+28.0 | roughly 56 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Brown +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Brown +69.3 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Brown +69.3 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Shontel Brown 100 in 100 (Solid D)
- Polls + fundamentals: Shontel Brown 100 in 100 (Solid D)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Shontel Brown 100 in 100 (Solid D)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent renominated
House races, closest first · this is #372 of 421