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U.S. House · All Ohio races

Ohio District 12

Solid R
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Jerrad Christian
Democratic
0 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Troy Balderson
Republican · incumbent
100 in 100

Troy Balderson wins in 100 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Troy Balderson +24.0.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Balderson +24.1; 80 in 100 fall between Balderson +31.4 and Balderson +16.7.

Balderson +30Balderson +20Balderson +10Christian +10Christian +20Christian +30Tie

The candidates

Troy BaldersonIncumbent
Republican
No biography on file yet.
Jerrad Christian
Democratic
No biography on file yet.

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Jerrad Christian against Troy Balderson yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Christian 0, Balderson 100.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) R+15.0roughly 30 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
IncumbencyBalderson +3.6incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimateBalderson +24.0±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastBalderson +24.0±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Jerrad Christian 0 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Jerrad Christian 0 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Jerrad Christian 0 in 100 (Solid R)

Rules and notes

  • Incumbent renominated

House races, closest first · this is #373 of 421