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U.S. House · All Tennessee races

Tennessee District 1

Solid R
Compare
Kristi Burke
Democratic
0 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Diana Harshbarger
Republican · incumbent
100 in 100

Diana Harshbarger wins in 100 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Diana Harshbarger +52.0.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Harshbarger +52.0; 80 in 100 fall between Harshbarger +59.3 and Harshbarger +44.7.

Harshbarger +30Harshbarger +20Harshbarger +10Burke +10Burke +20Burke +30Tie

The candidates

Kristi Burke
Democratic
No biography on file yet.
Diana HarshbargerIncumbent
Republican
No biography on file yet.
Joshua Ashburn
Independent
Richard Baker
Independent
Chris Campbell
Independent
Billy Cody
Independent
Tyler McClain
Independent

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Kristi Burke against Diana Harshbarger yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Burke 0, Harshbarger 100.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) R+29.0roughly 58 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
IncumbencyHarshbarger +3.6incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimateHarshbarger +52.0±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastHarshbarger +52.0±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Kristi Burke 0 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Kristi Burke 0 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Kristi Burke 0 in 100 (Solid R)

Rules and notes

  • Incumbent renominated

House races, closest first · this is #389 of 421