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U.S. House · All Tennessee races

Tennessee District 2

Solid R
Compare
Michaela Barnett
Democratic
0 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Tim Burchett
Republican · incumbent
100 in 100

Tim Burchett wins in 100 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Tim Burchett +28.0.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Burchett +28.0; 80 in 100 fall between Burchett +35.2 and Burchett +20.7.

Burchett +30Burchett +20Burchett +10Barnett +10Barnett +20Barnett +30Tie

The candidates

Michaela Barnett
Democratic
No biography on file yet.
Tim BurchettIncumbent
Republican
No biography on file yet.
Bruce Fine
Independent
Adam Heimerman
Independent

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Michaela Barnett against Tim Burchett yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Barnett 0, Burchett 100.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) R+17.0roughly 34 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
IncumbencyBurchett +3.6incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimateBurchett +28.0±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastBurchett +28.0±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Michaela Barnett 0 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Michaela Barnett 0 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Michaela Barnett 0 in 100 (Solid R)

Rules and notes

  • Incumbent renominated

House races, closest first · this is #390 of 421