Skip to content
Bellwether
LatestAll updates →
U.S. House · All Tennessee races

Tennessee District 3

Solid R
Compare
Anna Golladay
Democratic
0 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Chuck Fleischmann
Republican · incumbent
100 in 100

Chuck Fleischmann wins in 100 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Chuck Fleischmann +30.0.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Fleischmann +30.0; 80 in 100 fall between Fleischmann +37.3 and Fleischmann +22.7.

Fleischmann +30Fleischmann +20Fleischmann +10Golladay +10Golladay +20Golladay +30Tie

The candidates

Chuck FleischmannIncumbent
Republican
No biography on file yet.
Anna Golladay
Democratic
No biography on file yet.
Dean Arnold
Independent
Jean Howard-Hill
Independent
Rodney Joe King
Independent
Donnie Ownby
Independent
Edward Roland
Independent

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Anna Golladay against Chuck Fleischmann yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Golladay 0, Fleischmann 100.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) R+18.0roughly 36 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
IncumbencyFleischmann +3.6incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimateFleischmann +30.0±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastFleischmann +30.0±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Anna Golladay 0 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Anna Golladay 0 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Anna Golladay 0 in 100 (Solid R)

Rules and notes

  • Incumbent renominated

House races, closest first · this is #391 of 421