Nathaniel MoranIncumbent
Republican
U.S. House · All Texas races
Texas District 1
Solid R
Yolanda Prince
Democratic
0 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Nathaniel Moran
Republican · incumbent
100 in 100
Nathaniel Moran wins in 100 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Nathaniel Moran +42.0.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Moran +42.1; 80 in 100 fall between Moran +49.3 and Moran +34.8.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Yolanda Prince
Democratic
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.
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Polls
No public polls have tested Yolanda Prince against Nathaniel Moran yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Prince 0, Moran 100.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+24.0 | roughly 48 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Moran +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Moran +42.0 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Moran +42.0 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Yolanda Prince 0 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals: Yolanda Prince 0 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Yolanda Prince 0 in 100 (Solid R)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent renominated
House races, closest first · this is #392 of 421